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Things that make me go “hmmm.” February 15, 2007

Posted by nukemhill in Politics (Ghahh!), WoT.

Just had an interesting, if not completely conspiracy-theory driven, thought. My dad would be proud. Over the last few weeks, we’ve been seeing a ramping up of focus on Iran. The U.S. government is finally publicly acknowledging what many in the blogosphere have known for … months? … gad, years–that Iran has been meddling, rather forcefully, in Iraq. We’ve moved a third carrier group into the Persian Gulf, and more and more people are discussing the possibilities of some sort of military action against Iran.

I’ve been wondering about it myself, and haven’t really seen a way that the Bush Administration could pull it off. Bush has absolutely no political capital left, and has hit lame-duck status in record time. So, how is he going to give any kind of political boost to the Republican nominee in ’08? The ‘Pubs have to be worried about it. Playing to the Social Conservatives is a sure loser, and playing to the Fiscal Conservatives would get them laughed out of the country. The only real way is through foreign policy, but that is dicey, at best. If Iraq is still a mess next year, it’s a lost cause, and the Dems walk in. However, if Iraq really turns around, then it goes off the radar screen of the GAP, and the Dems get to play the “What are you worried about? War on Terror? Feh. It’s just police work now…” card, and the press would play right along.

Thus my conspiracy. What if Bush is actually expecting Iraq to be wrapped up by, oh, Spring of next year? What if the surge has been thought through (and with the news that Iraq is closing down its borders with Iran and Syria [paragraph 21], I’m beginning to think someone’s cranium is getting some exercise), and the expectation is that the Iraqi military is really going to be taking over for us relatively soon (my thoughts when I originally saw this map here)? What if, therefore, Bush is laying the groundwork for action against Iran, with the expectation that enough hard evidence will be available to justify it, and that overwhelming (or at least solid majority) support for said action will reside in the American public? Given that, the campaign becomes strictly about foreign policy, and the Republicans get to play “Iraq is working and we have to stay the course there and with Iran. Can you count on the Democrats to do this?”

It would be nothing short of brilliant, as far as I’m concerned (in my own befuddled, self-absorbed mind), if he were to pull this off, and fits in well with the old rope-a-dope strategy that Bush employed with varying levels of success post-9/11. I have absolutely no information that this is what’s going on, and have no clue whatsoever (what was your first hint) if it could be accomplished. But ain’t it a grand conspiracy theory?

Tips of the hat to the Blogfather, Jeff Goldstein, and A Second Hand Conjecture for planting the seeds that gave forth this rambling discourse.



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